Premier League table 2018/19: Alternative standings show how division should have finished, based on expected goals

Eve June 18, 2021
Premier League table 2018/19: Alternative standings show how division should have finished, based on expected goals
The Premier League season is done and dusted and in the record books.Manchester City are worthy champions, pipping Liverpool to the post thanks to a 4-1 victory over Brighton & Hove Albion on the final day.Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur took the last two Champions League places, while Arsenal and Manchester United, for the time being, will be in the Europa League next term.That is unless the Gunners win the final of the competition laters this month, against Chelsea, then they will also be in the Champions League.We say farewell to Huddersfield Town, Fulham, and Cardiff City, who will all be relegated to the Championship.But were all the clubs deserving of their final positions in the top-flight?One of the best ways to take a look at this is through ‘Expected Goals’.  How would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by the statistic?Here at talkSPORT.com were always keeping an eye onUnderstat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their xG stats.Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD have finished below

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
20. Huddersfield – Real position = 20Games played – 38Real points = 16 | Expected points = 29.6119. Fulham – Real position = 19Games played – 38Real points = 26 | Expected points = 33.6018. Brighton – Real position = 17Games played – 38Real points = 36 | Expected points = 36.19Brighton & Hove Albion managed to stay up but statistics show it could have been very different for them9
Brighton & Hove Albion managed to stay up but statistics show it could have been very different for them
17. Cardiff – Real position = 18Games played – 38Real points = 34 | Expected points = 37.4516. Newcastle – Real position = 13Games played – 38Real points = 45 | Expected points = 39.2214. Burnley – Real position = 15Games played – 38Real points = 40 | Expected points = 42.0015. West Ham – Real position = 10Games played – 38Real points = 52 | Expected points = 43.72West Ham United over-performed this season, according to statistics9
West Ham United over-performed this season, according to statistics
13. Southampton – Real position = 16Games played – 38Real points = 39 | Expected points = 45.1112. Watford – Real position = 11Games played – 38Real points = 50 | Expected points = 46.0011. Bournemouth – Real position = 14Games played – 38Real points = 45 | Expected points = 51.4910. Crystal Palace – Real position = 12Games played – 38Real points = 49 | Expected points = 51.93Crystal Palace celebrate their enthralling end of season win over Bournemouth9
Crystal Palace celebrate their enthralling end of season win over Bournemouth
9. Everton – Real position = 8Games played – 38Real points = 54 | Expected points = 55.548. Leicester – Real position = 9Games played – 38Real points = 52 | Expected points = 56.247. Arsenal – Real position = 5Games played – 38Real points = 70 | Expected points = 58.97Arsenal need to improve if they are to challenge next season9
Arsenal need to improve if they are to challenge next season
6. Wolves – Real position = 7Games played – 38Real points = 57 | Expected points = 59.915. Tottenham Hotspur – Real position = 4Games played – 38Real points = 71 | Expected points = 61.44Tottenham Hotspur scraped into the top four by the skin of their team after a tough season but stats suggest they were only worth a fifth-place finishGetty9
Tottenham Hotspur scraped into the top four by the skin of their team after a tough season but stats suggest they were only worth a fifth-place finish
4. Manchester United – Real position = 6Games played – 38Real points = 66 | Expected points = 61.86Manchester United have under-performed this season and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer could soon find himself under a lot of pressure9
Manchester United have under-performed this season and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer could soon find himself under a lot of pressure
3. Chelsea – Real position = 4Games played – 38Real points = 72 | Expected points = 71.45Chelsea were worthy of their third place finish9
Chelsea were worthy of their third place finish
2. Liverpool – Real position = 2Games played – 38Real points = 97 | Expected points = 83.45Liverpool got far closer to the title than statistics reckon they should have9
Liverpool got far closer to the title than statistics reckon they should have
1. Manchester City – Real position = 1Games played – 38Real points = 98 | Expected points = 90.64Not only do stats back up Manchester City as title winners, they don’t even seem to think they over-performed by muchGetty9
Not only do stats back up Manchester City as title winners, they don’t even seem to think they over-performed by much


Alternative Premier League table shows how the league should have finished (Image: GETTY/Understat) The table is based on expected goals, which then turns into expected points to predict the final
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Premier League table 2018/19: Alternative standings show how division should have finished, based on expected goals Using statistical models, this what the English top-flight should have looked
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The table is based on expected goals, which then turns into expected points to predict the final standings. The alternative table, from Understat.com, claims United should have finished fourth
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Premier League table 2018/19: Alternative standings show how division should have finished, based on expected goals The Premier League season is done and dusted and in the record books. Manchester City are worthy champions, pipping Liverpool to the post thanks to a 4-1 victory talkSPORT 1 week ago
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How the Premier League table should have finished, based on

Premier League table 2018/19: Alternative standings show how division should have finished, based on expected goals by: 161385360554578 — Talk Sport 13 May The Premier League season is done and dusted and in the record books.
Alternative Premier League table shows how league should have

Find out which football teams are leading the pack or at the foot of the table in the Premier League on BBC Sport.

The table is based on expected goals, which then turns into expected points to predict the final standings. The alternative table, from Understat.com, claims United should have finished fourth
Alternative Premier League table shows how league should have

Premier League Table: 2018 Final Standings and Reaction After Week 38 Results Liverpool would have finished fourth regardless, thanks to Chelsea being swept aside by Newcastle United
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